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Exam 3: Demand Forecasting

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Question 61

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Given the following historical data and weights of .5 for the most recent period,.3 for the next most recent,and .2 for the next after that,what is the weighted three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

A) 144.20
B) 144.80
C) 144.67
D) 143.00
E) 144.00

F) A) and D)
G) A) and B)

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Question 62

Multiple Choice

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The following equation is used to predict quarterly demand: Y_t = 350 - 2.5t,where t = 0 in the second quarter of last year.Quarter relatives are Q1 = 1.5; Q2 = 0.8; Q3 = 1.1; and Q4 = 0.6.What is the forecast for the last quarter of this year?

A) 201
B) 335
C) 268
D) 199.5
E) 266

F) All of the above
G) A) and E)

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Question 63

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What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago,and 19,700 for last year.What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?

A firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for helix gears: Y_t = 55 + 4t Demand for the past few years is shown below.Is the forecast performing as well as it might? Explain.

Sales for a product have been fairly consistent over several years,although showing a steady upward trend.The company wants to understand what drives sales.The best forecasting technique would be:

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain direct input from existing customers.

Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

The best forecast is always the one that is the most accurate.

A random pattern of errors within the limits of a control chart signals a need for corrective action.

A simple moving average assigns equal weight to each data point that is represented by the average.

Given the data below,develop a forecast for the following period using a three-period weighted moving average and weights of .5,.3,and .2.

-What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double)smoothing with alpha(1)= 0.2 and alpha(2)= 0.1,if the forecast for last year was 56,the forecast for two years ago was 46,and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2,if August's forecast was 145?

A company has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 to forecast weekly truck sales.Given the data below,would a naive forecast have provided greater accuracy? Explain.Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 .

What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights of .4,.3,.2,and .1?

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

One weakness of the Delphi method is that there is a high risk that one person's opinion will prevail.

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5,if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?